International Energy Agency: Coal demand growth will stagnate over the next five years.
According to the International Energy Agency’s latest Medium-Term Coal Market Report, global coal demand growth is expected to stagnate over the next five years, signaling that coal demand is entering a period of decline. Meanwhile, demand for other energy resources—especially renewable energy—is set to continue growing.
The report states that by 2021, coal’s share of power generation resources will decline from 41% in 2014 to 36%. The primary reasons for this shift are declining demand in China and the United States—the two largest consumers—and the further increase in the share of renewable energy sources.
Looking at this year, coal demand will return to 2013 levels. Since the beginning of the 21st century, coal consumption first declined in 2015, and the sharp drop in demand from China and the United States completely offset the impact of faster-growing demand from countries such as India, Indonesia, Russia, and Vietnam.
By 2021, China is still expected to be a major coal-consuming country, with its demand and production capacity each accounting for roughly half of the global total.
Keisuke Sadamori, Chairman of the International Energy Agency’s Energy Markets and Security Board, believes that “due to factors such as air quality and emissions reduction targets, coal demand will likely stagnate in the coming years. However, it would be premature to say that this marks the end of the coal era.”
Keisuke Sadamori further explained, “Coal demand is shifting toward emerging economies in Asia, where population growth and increasing demands for energy security are driving up coal consumption. At the same time, the downward trend in coal demand in Europe and the Americas will continue, and new policies and improvements in technological levels may even accelerate this decline.”
The report also forecasts that coal demand in Northern Asia will tend to stabilize, while coal demand in South and Southeast Asia will grow at a significantly faster pace, as coal-fired power remains one of the priority options for these regions to increase electricity generation, alleviate power shortages, and promote economic and social development. (This article is reprinted from Cable Network; copyright belongs to the original author. If there is any infringement, please contact us for immediate removal.)
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